Summary

Problem 🎯

Pooling and other research methods are outdated and can only show a snapshot of what a specific population has to say. Prediction Markets are known to be more reliable when used correctly. But to do so they need to have active users.

Solution 💡

A user friendly betting site that harness the wisdom of the crowds to generate better predictions for everyone. Atracting experts and curious people alike.

Role 💼

I've got to oversee or to design most of what's available about Futuur right now, having developed an extense component library aligned with the developes and business manager. I'm also responsible for helping with the strategic roadmap planning and day-to-day prioritization of the dev team's tasks.

The Story

Futuur is a prediction market where users can bet on real life events producing crowd-sourced predictions. The wisdom of the crowds theory is well known and is proven to be more effective way of predicting events at a scale than pooling or expert analysis. Unlike betting sites the odds are also crowd sourced and the liquidity is provided by an automated market maker. Learn more about it in the platform documentation.

Prediction Markets are kinda of a hot theme right now. But I've been helping Futuur since mid 2016, so I can say I've been around for a while. Since then the company switched from play money funny bets to a multi crypto powered prediction market. I've got to oversee all of the changes while learning about the complex environment of crypto, De-Fi, trading and prediction markets itself.

The Problem

Futuur's business is not betting itself. But rather to generate good predictions from them. Despite that, bets are needed to generate such predictions. Then the challenge was to create an experience that would attract enthusiasts ( early adopters, experts and researchers) and regular bettors alike.

Process

It would be very hard to describe the whole process in one single case, since it's a very long project. But I believe we've been validating the product bit by bit since the launch. And thus it's possible to break the story into bits of validation until nowadays.

1) Would people bet in odd predictions?

We validated that by launching both an iOS and Android app with play-money predictions everyday events. We then partnered with a small youtube channel to create predictions about the HBO series Game of Thrones generating a huge spike in activities.

We could validated our thesis and some of the users acquired then remain using Futuur as of today.

2) Were predictions any good?

Theory says that we need to use real money to get precise predictions. But we still hadn't get that by the 2018 american mid-term ellections. Despite that our analysis showed that our predictions compared to that of thirty five eight, one of the best renowed forecast institutes.

→ Read the article by Lucas Maciel.

3) Would people bet using crypto?

When we first launched crypto wasn't a real option for our business, since we wanted mass adoption. But by 2019 the story was different. We validated that within days of shipping the new crypto markets feature and a little afterward we've seen steady growth of deposit amount and recurrence.